Monte Carlo Simulator
Run 1,000 prop firm challenge simulations to see your real probability of passing — not a single hopeful scenario.
Your Trading Edge
Enter your realistic stats. If you don't have them tracked yet, start a challenge tracker and come back.
Challenge Parameters
Simulated Equity Curves
Bold lines: 5th / 50th (median) / 95th percentile outcomes. Thin lines: random individual simulations. Red line: drawdown bust level. Green line: profit target.
Final Equity Distribution
Where did the 1,000 simulations end up? Green bars reach or exceed the profit target; red bars busted the drawdown cap.
How the Simulator Works
Your stats define the coin
Each simulated trade is a weighted coin flip: heads (win) with probability = your win rate, tails (loss) otherwise. Heads pays R:R × risk; tails loses risk.
Each run is an attempt
Every simulation plays out your full trade count sequentially. If equity hits the profit target, the attempt is marked PASS. If it touches the drawdown floor, it's FAIL.
1,000 attempts, not one
We run the whole sequence 1,000 times. The % that pass is your real probability. The equity-curve bands show the full range of "lucky" vs "unlucky" outcomes your edge can produce.
Why this matters
A 60% win rate with 2:1 R:R looks unbeatable — until you realise 1,000 simulations show ~8% bust anyway just from variance. Single-scenario profit simulators hide this. Monte Carlo exposes it.
Know your edge? Find the firm that matches.